Ukraine-China

Shanghai Nickel Jumps to Record With China Import Window Closing

Spike in LME prices is making it tough for Asian buyers

Russian nickel flows to China appear to be continuing

Nickel rose to an intraday record in Shanghai after another spike in London put imports out of reach for many Chinese buyers.

The metal jumped as much as 14.5% to a record of 281,250 yuan ($44,206) a ton, the maximum allowed, on the Shanghai Futures Exchange before easing to 265,230 yuan as of the midday break. Nickel climbed by its trading limit of 15% on Thursday to $37,325 on the London Metal Exchange after Chinese tycoon Xiang Guangda covered some of his short positions.

While Western traders have been shunning Russian metals, nickel flows to China are continuing.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-25/shanghai-nickel-jumps-to-record-with-china-import-window-closing

It's obvious what is going on here. The result is a massive erosion of trust in the financial system.

                                 Big Shot

Normally, the story of a Chinese billionaire known as "Big Shot" garners little interest except among an elite group of commodity traders. However, it caught the attention of the author early on. It did so because the billionaire had developed a new technique to process nickel. More recently, though, "Big Shot" has been shorting the nickel market on the London Metals Exchange (LME). If you don't know his name then its time to learn. It is XIANG Guangda of Tsingshan Holding Group.

"Big Shot" began shorting nickel on the LME last year. The technique of shorting can be risky or conservative depending on whether it is uncovered or covered. In this case, the distinction is not so clear; although, an explanation will not be forthcoming here as it is too technical.

You may notice though that the author does like to mention personal anecdotes for the purpose of tweaking the reader's attention. Decades ago, the author was in Beijing. He was trading in Class A and B shares. He would visit the exchange on a frequent basis. He was approached by two well-healed, knowledgeable and connected Chinese. They wished to hire him to manage "short sales" in their new commodity trading company. By the way, the author has also had training and personal trading experience in a wide range of financial instruments including commodities. They wanted him to manage uncovered, naked, short sales. He declined the offer for the reason that it was too risky. Let's say he didn't want to earn the nickname "Big Short".

Big Shot perhaps justifiably believed that demand for nickel would decline. What he didn't anticipate-- along with almost everyone else--was a Russian invasion of the Ukraine. As a result, nickel prices doubled in price. In layman's language, he was on the wrong end of the stick.

There were two factors though in Big Shot's favor. The LME had been bought out in 2012 by the Hong Kong Stock Exchanges and Clearing. Furthermore, he had friends in high places in Beijing. What is known is that trading was suspended on March 8 and five thousand nickel trades were cancelled. What is not known because it is a state secret is information about China's strategic nickel reserve and how it may relate to the present situation.

To the author this situation is reminiscent of a story involving an American gold mine, a Canadian company, a gold discovery and Canada's gold reserve. It was a shocking situation involving both the Canadian and US governments. The author wrote a fifteeen page explosive report on the issue but did not dare to publish it. However, it was disseminated through a private newsletter. The true story which generally involved the defence of the US dollar vis-a-vis gold has never been revealed or disclosed.

The last time the LME suspended trading was on October 24, 1985 with respect to tin trading. The tin market was glutted. At that time, The International Tin Council had trouble making its commitments. The LME Chief Executive Mike Brown said “We explained to him the gravity of the situation and that, if nothing happened, we were seriously talking about probably the end of the London Metal Exchange, total chaos, lack of confidence, the bankruptcy of the exchange spilling over into other markets." 2.

The situation today really is its opposite, but one can argue it dwarfs the tin crisis of 1985. Nickel prices are surging. Nickel trades were suspended. The trades on the LME were nullified. It is "shorts" who must honour their commitments. The situation is extremely serious. Anyone in mining knows that tin is mostly a by-product. On the other hand, nickel is a primary product while platinum and palladium are by-products at least in the case of Russia's mines and the Sudbury mines in Canada.

The reader is no doubt aware of US sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Generally, the author doesn't think much of sanctions because they can so easily be circumvented. They may also hurt those who do the sanctioning. Furthermore, sanctions are usually selective. It is this selectivity which stands out in the case of US sanctions.

You are aware of US sanctions on Russian oil and gas entering the United States. That is basically symbolic. You are aware that oil and gas shipments from Russia to Europe are flowing as usual--mainly on the insistence of Germany. This is basically hypocrisy. What you may not be aware of is Russia's continuing ability to use the LME in order to bring in foreign currency to support its economy and war effort.

Read this announcement as reported by Reuters on March 22, 2022. "The London Metal Exchange has no current plans to ban from its system metal from Russian producers, such as nickel and copper from Norilsk Nickel or aluminium from Rusal". 1. Now, Russia is the first producer of palladium in the world. Russia is the second producer of platinum in the world. Finally, Russia is the third producer of nickel in the world. In other words, it can be involved in the commodity of nickel and its by-products, for example, on the LME which is owned by the Hong Kong Stock Exchanges and Clearing. Russia can benefit by surging nickel prices on the LME. There is something rotten in London and it is not fish from the Thames.

D. Carlton Rossi
corrected March 27, 2022

1.   https://www.reuters.com/business/lme-says-it-has-no-current-plans-ban-russian-metal-its-system-2022-03-22/

2.   https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1985-11-04-fi-186-story.html

Chinese Maritime Y-8 Patrol Aircraft crashes into South China Sea on March 1, 2022

F-35C Lightning II crashes onto flight deck of USS Carl Vinson in South China Sea on January 24, 2022

What China really means when it talks about NATO's eastward expansion

Analysis by Simone McCarthy, CNN

Updated 2:24 AM ET, Wed March 23, 2022

However, China's bid to draw parallels between the US strategy in the Indo-Pacific and NATO's "eastward expansion" in Europe closely echoes talking points from Moscow, raising serious doubts as to Beijing's supposed neutrality.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin has repeatedly attempted to use concerns over NATO to justify his brutal invasion of Ukraine. Now, experts say China is seeking to use the current crisis in Ukraine to not only amplify its portrayal of the US as an alleged instigator of conflict, whether in Europe or in Asia, but to warn of the consequences if the US and countries in the region align against China.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/23/china/china-ukraine-warning-us-asia-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html

The Picasso, owned and run by Ultra Deep Solutions (UDS), a Singapore-based deep diving heavy construction vessel operator, was built by China Merchants Heavy Industries

“The aircraft was recovered using a CURV-21, a remotely operated vehicle (ROV), which attached specialized rigging and lift lines to the aircraft.

The wreckage was recovered from a depth of approximately 12,400-feet by a team from CTF 75 and the NAVSEA’s Supervisor of Salvage and Diving (SUPSALV) embarked on the diving support construction vessel (DSCV) Picasso,” reads a statement from U.S. 7th Fleet.

“The aircraft was recovered using a CURV-21, a remotely operated vehicle (ROV), which attached specialized rigging and lift lines to the aircraft. The ship’s crane lifting hook was then lowered to the seafloor and connected to the rigging, and then lifted the aircraft to the surface and hoisted it onboard Picasso.”

Note: Russia is now monitoring my searches on Chrome

Все Картинки Покупки Новости Видео Ещё

The Shaanxi Y-8 or Yunshuji-8 (Chinese: 运-8) at Zhuhai airshow in 2012

The Shaanxi Y-8 or Yunshuji-8 (Chinese: 运-8; pinyin: Yùn Bā) aircraft is a medium size medium range transport aircraft produced by Shaanxi Aircraft Corporation in China, based on the Soviet Antonov An-12. It has become one of China's most popular military and civilian transport/cargo aircraft, with many variants produced and exported. Although the An-12 is no longer made in Ukraine, the Chinese Y-8 continues to be upgraded and produced. An estimated 169 Y-8 aircraft had been built by 2010.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shaanxi_Y-8

The status of the recovery of the Shaanxi Y-8 is unknown.

Chinese Maritime Y-8 Patrol Aircraft crashes into South China Sea on March 1, 2022

F-35C Lightning II crashes onto flight deck of USS Carl Vinson in South China Sea on January 24, 2022

The Picasso, owned and run by Ultra Deep Solutions (UDS), a Singapore-based deep diving heavy construction vessel operator, was built by China Merchants Heavy Industries

“The aircraft was recovered using a CURV-21, a remotely operated vehicle (ROV), which attached specialized rigging and lift lines to the aircraft.

The Shaanxi Y-8 or Yunshuji-8 (Chinese: 运-8) at Zhuhai airshow in 2012

Chinese Term ‘Wuxin Gongzuo’: Can’t Focus on Work Due to Russia-Ukraine Crisis

Chinese netizens are so focused on the Russian attack on Ukraine that nobody can focus on work (wuxin gongzuo).

China Insight

February 24, 2022

There is one new word today capturing the mood on Chinese social media in light of the Russia-Ukraine crisis: wū xīn gōngzuò (乌心工作), meaning people are so concerned with what is happening in Ukraine, that they cannot focus on work. The term that became a meme on Chinese social media today is a wordplay on the term wúxīn gōngzuò (无心工作), meaning not being in the mood to work.

https://www.whatsonweibo.com/chinese-term-wuxin-gongzuo-cant-focus-on-work-due-to-russia-ukraine-crisis/

It's a war in Ukraine, admits China for first time. But don't call it an invasion

The Telegraph

Sophia Yan

March 10, 2022

The country’s foreign minister said he hoped that fighting would end soon, according to a report by a Chinese state broadcaster. “We hope to see fighting and the war stop as soon as possible,” Wang Yi reportedly told his French counterpart, Jean-Yves Le Drian.

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/its-a-war-in-ukraine-admits-china-for-first-time-but-dont-call-it-an-invasion

The author has been putting off reporting this "about face" until he could confirm its authenticity. It is confirmed. The change of view suggests that China was unprepared for events in the Ukraine or to put it another way it was caught off-guard.

China underestimated many aspects of this conflict. These include the following: 1) brutality of the war 2) Ukrainian resistance 3) western resolve 4) world opinion and more importantly Chinese opinion 5) pointlessness of the war

‘It came too late’: Chinese students who fled Ukraine criticise embassy response

Vincent Ni China affairs correspondent

March 08, 2022

Almost two weeks before Russia acted – described by the Chinese media as “special military operations” – countries including the UK and Canada advised their nationals to leave Ukraine. But in the case of China, which had nearly 6,000 nationals in the country, it was not until the day after the war broke out that the embassy advised its citizens to leave.

Until the war broke out, many high-profile Chinese pundits and news outlets had insisted western prediction of an invasion was “fake news”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/08/chinese-students-fled-ukraine-condemn-embassy-response

China Pushes Conspiracy Theory About U.S. Labs in Ukraine

Bloomberg News

March 8, 2022

China accused the U.S. military of operating “dangerous” biolabs in Ukraine, echoing a Russian conspiracy theory that Western officials warned could be part of an effort to justify President Vladimir Putin’s invasion after the fact.

“U.S. biolabs in Ukraine have indeed attracted much attention recently,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said Tuesday in response to a question from a local reporter. He added that “all dangerous pathogens in Ukraine must be stored in these labs and all research activities are led by the U.S. side,” without providing evidence to back up the claim.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-08/china-pushes-russia-conspiracy-theory-about-u-s-labs-in-ukraine

Let me see if I understand. Fake news about bio-labs in Ukraine is treated as "real" by Chinese state media; whereas, real news of an imminent invasion of Ukraine is treated as fake. You fool only yourselves.

Posts that glorify war and those that criticize Russia are getting quietly deleted

JENNIFER CONRAD

WIRED.COM

March 06, 2022

A sign outside Canada's embassy in Beijing supporting Ukraine. It was later defaced, and posts about the incident were scrubbed from Chinese social media.

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2022/03/the-war-in-ukraine-is-keeping-chinese-social-media-censors-busy/

China Says One Of Its Nationals Wounded In Gunfire In Ukraine

NDTV

March 02, 2022

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin told a media briefing here that one Chinese citizen was shot and wounded in Ukraine on March 1. The Chinese Embassy in Ukraine got in touch with him and he is out of danger, he said.

China has over 6,000 of its nationals stranded in Ukraine. Chinese officials have made efforts to shift them to neighbouring countries to airlift them home.

So far 2,500 Chinese nationals have been relocated to safer places, he said, adding that the evacuation efforts were going on in an orderly manner.

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/china-says-one-of-its-nationals-wounded-in-gunfire-in-ukraine-2799081

Thousands of Chinese nationals stranded in Ukraine amid warnings over online jokes

Radio Free Asia

February 28, 2022

Thousands of Chinese nationals remain stranded in Ukraine, nearly four days after the Russian invasion, despite official promises to evacuate them.

Meanwhile, Chinese nationals trapped in Ukraine have been attacked and harassed by Ukrainians angered by their government's support for Putin, according to social media reports.

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/ukraine-chinese-02282022144412.html

Chinese student in Ukraine

Chinese citizens in Kyiv say they are affected by rising anti-Chinese sentiments among Ukrainians who believe that China supports the Russian invasion of Ukraine. On February 24, shortly after news broke out that Russia had invaded Ukraine, the Chinese embassy issued a notice to Chinese citizens in Ukraine to place a clearly visible Chinese flag on their car if they planned to travel by car. The idea that Chinese citizens in Ukraine should clearly identify themselves as Chinese as a safety precaution was further propagated by the Chinese state media outlet People’s Daily. On February 25, however, the Chinese embassy seemingly changed its tune, as they posted on WeChat reminding Chinese citizens in Ukraine to be careful to reveal their identity. A hashtag page dedicated to the topic received over 820 million views on Weibo on Saturday (#在乌中国公民不要随意亮明身份#). The sudden switch caused unrest and confusion on Weibo, where many wondered why the embassy initially seemed to suggest that the Chinese flag would offer a certain sense of security and why this apparently has changed.

https://www.whatsonweibo.com/chinese-students-in-ukraine-say-anti-chinese-sentiments-on-the-rise-due-to-fake-news/

Angela Stent of Georgetown University says although China and Russia are "closing ranks" and backing each other up on various foreign policy tensions, there are differences in tone between their approaches.

December 15, 2021

China’s caution on Russia-Ukraine tensions ‘not as far’ as Putin has gone with Taiwan issue, says professor.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/12/16/china-is-being-cautious-when-speaking-about-russia-ukraine-conflict-says-professor.html

It is hard to see that the relationship between Russia and China is better than an alliance (as China claims) if it is not on an equal basis---unless one says it is better for China.

Pilots operate a JL-10 advance trainer jet of Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force at the China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition, or Airshow China, in Zhuhai, Guangdong province, China September 28, 2021. REUTERS/Aly Song/File Photo

Analysis: Ukraine crisis threatens China's discreet pipeline in military technology

By Greg Torode

March 03, 2022

Russia remains China's most important source of military technology, but Ukraine has provided some items that Moscow can be reluctant or slow to give, reflecting its Soviet-era role as a military shipbuilding and aerospace hub.

"My guess is that Ukraine for some years filled an important niche for China, in that it might have easier to get certain products and technologies that Russian might have been less keen to sell them," said Singapore-based strategic consultant Alexander Neill. "But China's own indigenous design and manufacturing capacities have improved and to a large extent Ukraine has probably served its purpose."

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/ukraine-crisis-threatens-chinas-discreet-pipeline-military-technology-2022-03-03/

Chinese state media has instead used the term “special military operations.”

State-run broadcaster CCTV’s daily evening news broadcast has mentioned the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but mostly in a brief segment toward the end of the roughly half-hour program in a section about international news.

Again, the discussion of the war has focused more on efforts toward negotiations, and less on Russia’s attack.

During a press conference Tuesday, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce did not take a single question from reporters about trade with Russia, Ukraine or the United States.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/02/heres-how-chinese-media-is-covering-ukraine.html

Politics and ideology take precedence over the economy. It is the post Deng era.

It is a certainty that China will not call its own actions in the future as special military operations.

U.S. threatens to 'shut down' Chinese chipmakers if they violate Russian sanctions

Protocol

Max A. Cherney

March 8, 2022

U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said to the New York Times Tuesday that the Biden administration could cut off SMIC and other Chinese chip makers’ access to the U.S. produced tools and software vital for the manufacture of the most advanced chips. While the prohibition on chip sales to Russia has always included the possibility of the U.S. punishing foreign businesses that violate the sanctions, Tuesday marked the first time a senior administration official specifically mentioned China and Chinese chip makers.

According to the Times, Raimondo mentioned SMIC and that the Biden administration could “essentially shut” down any Chinese company that violates the ban on exporting chips to Russia and Belarus. Prior to its invasion of Ukraine, Russia bought the majority of its chips from China, though also sourced a substantial amount of memory from Samsung, and analog chips from the German company Infineon, according to a Protocol analysis of Russian import data.

https://www.protocol.com/bulletins/chip-sanctions-china-russia

Keywords: Zelenskii, Ukraine, invasion, Kviv, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong