Moskva sinking: What really happened to the pride of Russia’s fleet?
Analysis by Brad Lendon, CNN
Updated 3:09 AM EDT, Fri April 15, 2022
Timothy Heath, senior international defense researcher at the RAND Corp. think tank, said the strike on the Moskva would underscore to both China and the US“the vulnerability of surface ships” in any potential military clash.
Thomas Shugart, a former US Navy submarine commander who is now an analyst at the Center for a New American Security, said there were too many differences between the situations.
The Moskva’s air defense systems are not in the same league as the more modern Aegis systems on US Navy destroyers, and Ukrainian anti-ship missiles are not as good as Chinese ones, Shugart said.
‘Today’s Ukraine, tomorrow’s Taiwan:’ There is nothing inappropriate about the comparison
“The media and general public in Taiwan are right to be concerned about the Ukraine invasion, given China’s claim to Taiwan, which does not exclude military conflict to bring about the result,” writes Hilton Yip.
by HILTON YIP
March 14, 2022
Some people in Hong Kong might find the phrase “today’s Ukraine, tomorrow’s Taiwan” familiar. It was commonly repeated during the self-ruled island’s 2014 Sunflower Movement and in 2019, when Hong Kong saw months of protests and unrest, only with “Hong Kong” in place of “Ukraine.”
The phrase implied that what was happening to Hong Kong could eventually happen to Taiwan, too. It is understandable that the updated phrase has sprung up in Taiwan, where Ukraine’s predicament has led to a lot of animated discussion on whether it could happen on the island too.
Could the Ukraine war save Taiwan?
March 05, 2022
The world has been able to see the Ukrainian conflict in real-time because every major global media organisation is broadcasting scenes of terrified civilians, as well as the sheer bravery of Ukraine’s people as they resist invasion. One of the consequences of Beijing’s crackdown on foreign media in mainland China and Hong Kong is that a range of western media now operates from Taipei. Ten years ago, Taiwan’s capital was an afterthought for international media. Now it is a global hub for coverage of China. Any assault on Taipei would receive massive coverage. Russia cares little about global PR. China, despite its increasing assertiveness, is still keen to promote its image as a peaceful power that seeks economic partnership. Footage of terrified civilians hiding in the Taipei metro would hardly burnish that image. The brutality evident in the streets of Ukraine may have given Taiwan a breathing space.
Putin's War on Ukraine Shows Xi the Dangers of Attacking Taiwan
The fallout from Russia’s invasion may prompt China’s leaders to think twice about taking Taiwan by force.
March 7, 2022, 4:00 PM EST
Putin’s war “sends a signal to China that it won’t be as easy to take Taiwan as it imagines,” said Lin Chu-yin, a ruling-party lawmaker who spent years as a TV news anchor in Taiwan. “And it also breaks the myth that one can easily defeat another smaller or militarily weaker country with missiles.”
Hu Xijin, formerly the editor-in-chief of the Communist Party-backed Global Times, wrote in December that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be over in “a matter of hours” due to a lack of resistance by Taiwan and no “real assistance” from the U.S. and its allies.
Yet events in Ukraine suggest those assumptions may be optimistic. The U.S. tracked Putin’s military buildup for months, and Russia’s army has had difficulty maintaining supply lines despite sharing land borders over a vast area. Moreover, Russia still hasn’t achieved air superiority even though the U.S. and its allies explicitly rejected calls to send troops or enforce a no-fly zone. Of course, Russia has yet to deploy much of its air power.
Ukraine war serves as wake-up call for Taiwan over China threat
Russian invasion increases fears that Beijing will try to take the island by force
Kathrin Hille in Taipei
March 07, 2022
“This Ukraine crisis reminds us that this threat is very real. A lot of people are suddenly paying more attention to self-defence,” said Ho Cheng-hui, a law professor who last year founded Kuma Academy. The academy aims to educate the public about fighting and strengthen its will to resist.
“Our air defences were modelled on the US, with big systems such as Patriot missiles. But we may not have air superiority like the US. We can see from Ukraine how useful small, mobile systems such as Stinger man-portable missiles and Javelin anti-tank missiles are in that situation.”
“Friendship between the two states has no limits,” the two countries said in a joint statement. However, this declaration seems less than absolute with concerns expressed by the Chinese about Russia's attack on Europe's largest nuclear plant. China broke its silence on Russia's invasion to say it is 'gravely concerned' about Ukraine's nuclear plants after Russia attacked the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant on March 4, 2022.
It seems the friendship between China and Russia does have limits--particularly with regard to Ukraine. It has had to recognize the sovereignty of Ukraine. "China firmly advocates respecting and safeguarding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries," Wang said, according to a statement from China's Foreign Ministry. "This equally applies to the Ukraine issue."
One supposes that the word "countries" has been carefully chosen--particularly as it may or may not apply to China's own nearby territorial assertions and ambitions. The word "countries" does not seem to support Russia's view of the independence of the two separatist regions of Donetsk and Lugansk in eastern Ukraine. China has sizeable infrastructure investment and planned projects in Donetsk as part of One Belt One Road.
China may talk about Ukraine as a sovereign nation, but what it is not talking about is brother against brother. The Russian billionaire Mikhail Fridman who was born in the Ukraine voices this viewpoint. He says "the conflict was driving a wedge between the two eastern Slav peoples of Russia and Ukraine who have been brothers for centuries.". 1